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 President Sirleaf’s Second Term Pronouncement; The Political- Development Implications
So the Madam has decided to run for a second term, and there are disagreements over her statement. Pundits believe that the place of her pronouncement was not the right venue- others argued that there is no better forum to make pronouncements, because as it is, politics is an “international currency” and does not succumb to any locality and its exchange rates.
My move is not to join the parade over this debate. Reason is that it takes us nowhere and it is not a sensible form of discussion, especially for those in the opposition camp. They should by now be discussing serious issues, by engaging in political clearing house for the race in 2011. I will therefore look at both her pronouncement from two perspectives: development and leadership and the implication for the Liberian people.
First, several development economists assert two points: a country experiencing a rapid growth is likely to emerge out of a crisis faster than a country that was experiencing a state of stagnation. Liberia falls in the latter, and the spell of stagnation has been long.
Secondly, and statistically, it has been established that a country that faces one year of crisis, such as Liberia, will need more than five years of development to catch up with that lost year, and especially if the crisis was been financed by the exploitation of a valuable and revenue reliance natural resources. Imagine Liberia had been involved in a civil crisis for more than a decade. The regression analysis tells a lot about the level of underdevelopment and the fragility of the state.
Putting aside the politics of opposition, anyone clothe with the language of development will agree that there has been modest progress on the part of this government as manifested by the provisions of basic social services. Further, the revenue generating capacity is still beleaguered by the overreliance on primary export. This should further prompt the need for alternatives that emphasize gross domestic production (GDP), support to the informal sector and empowerment of women through social capital and social capability.
We now turn to the issue of leadership. After years of crisis, it is expected that all of the institutional fabrics are rendered useless and rebuilding them can take an awful lot of time. Building the pillar of integrity, the rule of law, accountability and transparency is not an easy task, and can be difficult when the political will is lacking.
Many Liberians will agree that this government is not doing much to fight corruption (a promise unfulfilled). The “holy grail” of politics is the ability to make decisions that rally a sense of community and support for the regime, and the President’s inability to take drastic action is hurting the underprivileged; prompting a dissent.
When interpreted, corruption can mean a lot (denying people the right to health care- increase in infant mortality, and low life expectancy, education- stagnation in the literacy rate or an increase in illiteracy, employment opportunity- increase in poverty and income inequality, an increase in social seclusion- most people will feel unplugged from society, and a lack of representation- less interest in politics).
With these analyses, one sees that the correlation between economic and democratic reforms is shaded in gray.
And against this backdrop, is it necessary for the President to seek a second term? Outside of a political context, one would agree that the answer depends. However, few pointers are in order.
If she decides to prioritize the issue of governance by timely implementing decisions coming from the GAC, GC, and the LACC, things could term around. But as it is observed, she is recognizably holding most of her perceived corrupt political appointees as political pawns”- a total disservice to national interest.
If she decided against seeking a second term, it could possibly lead to a break in her development agenda, which from a closer examination is on track but is been hindered by resources plague and the lack of “political will”. Moreover, if she loses re-election, the next president will have a bumpy start which could take anywhere between 2-3 years. But be that as it may, these are decisions left to the electorates.
However, what is sacrosanct is that underdeveloped countries such as Liberia coming out of a state of war will take decades if not centuries to converge to the level of developing nations. So if our decision is political, then we should carefully re-examine it, and if it is developmental in nature, then we should weigh the impact of continuity and discontinuity and the public policy implication it provides for us.
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